Judging from the current economic leading indicators, the Chinese economy is picking up. But this warming trend is passed to the commercial vehicle industry, but it is not obvious. Many companies and dealers are a bit untenable. A few days ago, a heavy truck dealer friend told me that I was ready to change career.
Everyone knows that the darkest moment before dawn, and the coldest time before the beginning of spring, this is exactly the same, "When it is cold, it is the most difficult to breathe." Many companies tend to fall before dawn. China's truck market, especially the heavy truck market, will have much room for development in the future. However, compared with this period of time this year, the next month and next year will definitely be better than 2012. This is not the case, the 18th National Congress is also open, and the human heart is also stable. In addition, the just-released HSBC November PMI index shows that China's manufacturing value reached 50.4 in November. This is the first expansion of the HSBC China Manufacturing Index in 13 months, and commodity prices are also rising, indicating that the Chinese economy is expected to avoid hard. Landing.
From the current heavy truck market situation, it should be better in December than in November, and November is better than October. Although the increase was not large, it has finally changed the situation in which sales have been falling. Although the specific economic policy will not be clear until the end of the economic work conference in mid-December, from the 18th National Congress, the new central leadership is unlikely to continue to accept lower economic growth rates - recent mass incidents. Frequently, the new leaders certainly do not want to meet "trouble" when they come to power. To reduce trouble, they must maintain a certain economic growth rate. Only if the economy maintains growth rate can we have low fiscal revenues to increase employment. If the economic growth rate is obviously weak, then group incidents will occur in various places. In addition, the previous government reduced the agricultural tax and won the support of many farmers. Will the current government also reduce some taxes to increase the public's goodwill? For example, to raise the threshold for individual taxes, such as "camp reform and increase" to increase the intensity of the promotion, in order to increase the vitality of the tertiary industry. In short, when the new leaders take office, they will be stable, try to maintain social stability, and implement some new policies, and try to stimulate social conflicts as little as possible to win the public's goodwill.
In this way, next year's heavy truck market will be better than this year, and as for whether it will blow out, it will depend on whether it will relax monetary policy and whether it will launch some major investment projects to boost the economy.